The oil sector has been quite lucky for the Modi government. It has often provided an opportunity to the government to mend its finances, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
The FMCG industry in India achieved a 10.6% growth in value terms in the December quarter of 2024, driven largely by rural markets, which have surpassed the large urban markets in growth for the fourth consecutive quarter. Festive demand and consumption-driven growth played a key role, with overall volume up 7.1% despite inflationary pressures. However, the industry also saw a "preference shift of consumers towards smaller packs" due to high food inflation. Local manufacturers continue to outperform larger FMCG companies, fueled by consistent volume growth.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Oil prices have declined by more than 60 per cent since January with benchmark crude falling well below $30 per barrel, driven by an acute oil demand decline caused by the coronavirus and a lack of production cuts by OPEC and other oil producing countries.
Aviation companies are set to get a major relief from high aviation turbine fuel prices. Following a steep decline in crude oil prices, oil marketing companies are looking to cut ATF prices by 5-6 per cent, or Rs 2,000-2,500 a kl across various cities beginning Thursday, said industry sources.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
Notwithstanding the windfall tax placing a cap on profits, oil and gas producers like Oil India (OIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have done well in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of 2022-23 (FY23). ONGC faces the drag of poor results from its subsidiary Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and in comparative terms, OIL is better off. Standalone net sales in Q3FY23 stood at Rs 5,900 crore - up 57 per cent year-on-year (YoY), up 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
All the BSE sectoral indices closed in the green. BSE Realty, Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials were lead gainers, jumping up to 5 per cent. IndusInd Bank was the lead gainer among Sensex shares, surging by 6.84 per cent. Tata Motors rallied 4.50 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Adani Ports, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and HCL Tech were also among the gainers. ITC and Hindustan Unilever were the only laggards.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
Investors' wealth on Monday surged Rs 4.21 lakh crore as markets bounced back after five days of fall. The BSE Sensex jumped 602.75 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 80,005.04. During the day, it surged 1,137.52 points or 1.43 per cent to 80,539.81.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum recorded profit on the sale of petrol and diesel, the first in three years, on the back of falling international oil prices, industry sources said. The three firms are moping up a neat Rs 11.99 per litre margin on petrol and Rs 4.13 a litre on diesel sale.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Security experts have warned that using Signal for discussions of this nature violates every established protocol for handling classified information.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL), one of the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) players, is learnt to have cut prices of its leading soaps and detergents this month by 2-19 per cent, according to the company's distributors. The cuts come after consistent price increases by the company as well as its peers, following the sharp rise in raw material prices in the past several months. It is only recently that prices of raw materials have started to correct from peak levels in the June quarter.
Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
Homegrown fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Dabur India is set to record low single-digit growth in consolidated revenue in the December quarter, it said in an update on Friday. The maker of Hajmola candy and Real fruit juice said rural consumption continued to be resilient and grow faster than urban in the third quarter.
India's exports declined for the fourth month in a row in February to $36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. The country's exports stood at $41.41 billion in the same month a year ago.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
With domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India on Thursday pressed oil cartel OPEC for 'affordable' oil price within a 'reasonable band' and that the producers should phase out production cuts. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been India's principal oil source. But, OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, ignoring its call for ease supply curbs had led to the world's third-biggest oil importer tap newer sources to diversify its crude oil imports. As a result, OPEC's share in India's oil imports has dropped to about 60 per cent in May from 74 per cent in the previous month.
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Amid the ongoing global tariff war, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday said he is more worried about its impact on growth than inflation. Speaking to the media after presentation of the first bi-monthly monetary policy for the current financial year, Malhotra said, RBI has reduced the growth forecast for 2025-26 by 20 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
A realistic approach towards tax and stock taking is necessary, rather than the old narrative of bringing all petroleum products under GST and playing the blame-the-state game.
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
The outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors to drive stock market sentiments this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude are also crucial aspects to watch out for.
For now, the upside appears to offset damage done to exports by weaker global demand.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday announced a Rs 100 per cylinder cut in cooking gas LPG price to ease financial burden on households. Non-subsidised cooking gas price will be cut to Rs 803 per 14.2-kg cylinder in the national capital with effect from midnight of Friday/Saturday, official sources said. Prices vary from state to state depending on the incidence on local taxes.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
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