Spiralling oil prices will exert huge pressure on India's balance sheet of inflows and outflows of resources resulting in a three-fold increase in the current account deficit to 4.7 per cent of the country's GDP in fiscal ending 2009, a Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday.
Equity markets will keenly track outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting this week amid heightened expectations of an interest rate cut along with WPI inflation data, analysts said. Any further development on the USndia trade front would also drive trends in the equity market, experts said.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
More than half of the total subsidy provisioning, amounting to 54 per cent, is going towards food subsidy, which is estimated at Rs 184,220 crore for 2019-20 - a 7.5 per cent increase over the revised estimates for 2018-19.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
Bangkok is a fast, 24-hour megapolis, full of joie de vivre and buoyance that you will be instantly smitten, like I was.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors and Power Grid were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, ITC, UltraTech Cement and Titan were among the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Bharat Electronics and Sun Pharma were among the major gainers. In contrast, Trent, Eternal, Axis Bank and Titan were among the laggards.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
Qatar will lead growth in the region with around 8.7 per cent, while growth will be about six per cent each in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, 4.5 per cent in the United Arab Emirates, 4.2 per cent in Oman and 3.1 per cent in Bahrain, the report by Kuwait-based Gulf Investment Company said.
The government is expecting a better soyabean and groundnut production on account of well-distributed monsoon rains and good prices.
United States representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove while talking about the famous car selfie of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it spoke a thousand words.
The cost of any flight from Delhi and Mumbai could rise by up to Rs 3,000 soon unless the airport regulator is able to reverse a court order.
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth 49 billion euros from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
Cooking gas or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price has been raised by Rs 50 per cylinder by distribution companies, Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
As of now, no firm has launched a flex-fuel vehicle in India, as these models are more expensive than comparable petrol-run vehicles.
Among 30 Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services, Eternal, Asian Paints, Tata Steel and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest gainers. Tata Motors, Adani Ports and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Amid the political push and pull, the Centre's decision to allow sugar exports and remove the 50 per cent duty on molasses exports has rekindled hope in the industry that more relief may follow.
Exports in January 2014 stood at $26.89 billion.
With crude oil flirting with the $100 a barrel mark, world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia is emulating marketing savvy West to showcase oil cartel Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a new light when it organises the third OPEC Summit in Riyadh this week.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to (-) 0.13 per cent in June as prices of food articles and fuel saw deflation, along with easing in manufactured product costs, government data showed on Monday. WPI-based inflation was 0.39 per cent in May. It was 3.43 per cent in June last year.
Cooking oil rates have already witnessed a rise of almost 25 per cent since last year
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
Assessing where their funds are flowing gives traders a hidden edge in predicting the market direction and momentum.
Petroleum Minister Ram Naik on Monday said the hike in petrol and diesel prices was "justified" given the hardening of global crude prices.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
oil market remained under pressure and big gains are unlikely.
With crude oil touching a record $72 per barrel, Indian Oil Corporation is seeking a Rs 5.6 per litre increase in petrol and Rs 7.6 a litre hike in diesel prices to offset the Rs 80-crore (Rs 800-million) revenue loss per day.
Oil still lubricates the global economy and could make it seize up. Prices above $110 a barrel raise the spectre of previous shocks. Judged by fundamental supply and demand, there is no reason for prices to remain so high. But, a sustained spike would be a big problem for the global economy.
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